Congressional Cage Match
CA Redistricting Commission’s Proposed Map Pits OC Incumbents Against Each Other
Image credit The Vine
So as we’ve seen, the California redistricting commission made some… interesting decisions in their draft map released this week. One of the areas with the most change is Orange County. And as a resident of Orange County, I thought I’d summarize these changes.
This proposed map for Congressional district CA-46 closely resembles the current district. Image credit Ethan Ball
First, I’ll discuss the two districts that didn’t change much: CA-46 and CA 49. The current CA-46 (represented by Lou Correa) stays very similar. It is still majority Hispanic at 65%. It is based around Santa Ana and Anaheim, and was Clinton+37 and Biden+30. This is a safe D seat. The other seat that didn’t change much is Mike Levin’s CA-49. It picks up Coto de Caza in Orange County and some precincts west of Escondido in San Diego County, but mostly stays the same. This new district was Clinton+3 and Biden+9, and I’d rate it at lean D.
This proposed map for Congressional district CA-49 is relatively unchanged. Image credit Ethan Ball
Now we get to the districts that have changed a bit. Before I get into them, I want to say that the three remaining OC incumbents (Katie Porter, Michelle Steel, and Young Kim) all have two options of seats to run in. I will explain both of their options. Now let’s move on.
This proposed map for Congressional district CA-48 would absorb a segment of Irvine’s voters who do not necessarily share views with the beach communities it is lumped into. Image credit Ethan Ball
Our next district most closely resembles the modern CA-48, however,it loses a lot of its Asian population in Fountain Valley, Westminster, and Garden Grove in exchange for southern Irvine, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Hills. Michelle Steel, who currently reps the equivalent of this district, is actually drawn out as Seal Beach is removed from the district. Katie Porter lives in the part of Irvine moved into Steel’s district. This means either Steel or Porter could choose to run here. Should Porter run, it’s likely that Former Representative Harley Rouda would step aside. This district is Clinton+6 and Biden+9. It depends on who runs, but I’d start this district as a tossup if Porter runs and Lean R if Steel runs.
This proposed map from the commission would create a Congressional district combines CA-47 and CA-39. Image credit Ethan Ball
The next district takes in parts of the current 47th and 39th districts to make a plurality Asian district centered around Westminster, Buena Park, Garden Grove, and Fullerton. It was Clinton+13 and Biden+6. This district could be a place to run for either Steel (who now lives in the district) or Young Kim (who currently represents some of this area). Both Young and Steel have crossover appeal and won Biden districts, so I’d start this district at lean R assuming one of the current Republican incumbents runs.
The proposed map for Congressional district CA-45 would bifurcate Irvine’s voters, diluting their voices. Image credit Ethan Ball
Finally, I’ll talk about this new district centered in Northern Orange County. It is similar to the current CA-45th, but reaches up to gain some red area from CA-39 in Yorba Linda and Chino Hills while losing the blue southern Irvine. It is actually a Trump-Biden district being Trump+2 in 2016 and Biden+4 in 2020. The two contenders for this district are Porter (who currently represents most of the area) or Kim (who might avoid running against Steel and move to a redder district). With Porter I’d start it at a tossup and with Kim, lean R.
The proposed map for Congressional districts in Orange County. Image credit Ethan Ball
As you can see, the commission really set up a game of musical chairs for the Orange County incumbents. Unfortunately, this comes at the expense of Irvine voters, who are split between two districts. This change not only divides a community of Irvinites that should be kept together, but dilutes the voting power of Asians in Irvine, who get placed with heavily white areas around the city. I’d strongly recommend that the commission keep Irvine whole in its maps. If you agree, you can let the commission know by submitting a public comment online.
